Agenda item

To receive an update of the Dedicated Schools Grant (DSG) management plan for the period 2025/26 to 2031/32 to reflect the financial outturn position and the reduced growth of Education, Health and Care plans (EHCP) numbers as at 31 March 2025.

The committee received a report which provided an update of the Dedicated Schools Grant (DSG) management plan for the period 2025/26 to 2031/32 to reflect the financial outturn position and the reduced growth of Education, Health, and Care Plans (EHCP numbers as at 31 March 2025.

The DSG management plan had been reprofiled to take in to account of the reduced growth of EHCP numbers (6.4% EHCP growth – 1.6% lower than anticipated) and a lower high needs deficit position than forecast as at 31 March 2025 (£6.4 million reduction in the high needs deficit position – giving a position of £113.7 million high needs block deficit).

Officers highlighted that an in-year balanced position was still achievable by year 7 (2030/31) but that would not mean that the deficit had been paid off, it would just mean that the income matched the expenditure.

The accounting override had been extended to 2027/28 by which point the deficit reserve position was forecast to be £190.8m mitigated.

The committee asked questions and made comments in respect of:

-       why only half the required funding was available for SEND children.

-       As needs assessments had risen sharply which may lead to more EHCPs, were the current projections overly optimistic.

-       How did the council’s performance compare with other local authorities

-       Concerns that reprofiling over a 7-year period did not address worsening short-term projections, was the current forecast reliable?

-       Concerns about delays in timescales in respect of funding reaching children.

In response, officers reported that:-

-       They were working within the current allocation and aiming to develop a long-term, affordable plan.

-       They acknowledged the increase in needs assessments and explained that the management plan was based on the SEN2 survey which was produced in January 2025. Many assessments were expected to result in EHCPs and agreed the plan was challenging but last year’s performance slightly exceeded expectations.

-       comparisons had been made previously with other local authorities but officers could not comment further without updated data and further research.

-       The original plan was for 5 years, but a more robust 7-year plan was introduced in April 2024 as part of the Safety Valve Programme. It aligned with DfE strategies and included annual updates based on EHCP outturns and financial data. Improvements had been noted since the last update.

Officers agreed to raise the issue of delays to funding reaching children with finance colleagues.

The Chair confirmed that a letter had been sent to central government regarding free schools, which were a key part of the mitigation strategy, but that no response had been received to date.

RESOLVED:

That the Children and Families Committee

1. Note and scrutinise the DSG Management plan for 2024/25 to 2030/31 (approved by Children and Families Committee on 29 April 2024) has been reprofiled/re-cast to reflect the lower number of Education, Health, and Care plans and the lower deficit position as recorded on 31 March 2025.

2. Note and scrutinise the impact of the reprofiling:

a. An in year balanced position by year 7 (2030/2031) is still achievable.

b. A reduced forecast deficit reserve position of £766.4 million unmitigated and £205.4 million mitigated by the end of March 2031.

c. A forecast deficit reserve position of £990.3 million unmitigated and £197.6 million mitigated by the end of March 2032.

3. Note the mitigations within the original plan remain in place (approved by Children and Families Committee on 29 April 24).

4. Note the accounting override has been extended to 2027/2028, by which point the deficit reserve position is forecast to be £318 million unmitigated and £190.8 million mitigated.