Issue - meetings

To receive a report on the first financial review for Adults and Health services for the financial year 2024/25.

The Committee considered a report on the current forecast outturn for the financial year 2024/25 based on the Council’s income, expenditure and known commitments as at the end of July 2024. It also identified actions that were being taken to address adverse variances to urgently address the Council’s financial sustainability.

Performance against the 2024/25 Budget within each service committee, and the Finance Sub-Committee was outlined in Table 1 of the report. The Council was forecasting an additional in-year pressure of £26.5m - this was before the application of any exceptional financial support.

Members sought clarification on the reasons for the overspend of £20.7m in the Adults budget. It was stated that the overspends forecast were the expected overspends at the end of the year if nothing changed. The overspends arose from a number of factors including more people than anticipated seeking Council support. This included an increase in the number of former self-funders seeking local authority funding to meet their care costs. Other factors included the increase in costs of providing care due to increases in the National Living Wage, an increase in the discharge activities from hospitals.

Officers reported that it would be very unlikely that the department would be able to balance its budget this year. However, the £20.4m forecast was a worst-case scenario and assumed a level of growth in the second half of the year similar to the level of growth seen in the first half of the year. If the activity in growth and price could be prevented in the second half of the year that should bring the overspend down by £4m.

Officers advised Members that the needs of those with most significant social care needs and disabilities, are factored into projections. Officers had commissioned modelling to be undertaken on the demand on Adults and Children’s to the end of the decade, in order to get a better understanding of what will happen year-on-year. A key driver of demand and expenditure in adult social care is the proportion of the population over the age of 85, which has increased in Cheshire East over the last 5 years, at a faster rate than the English average and will continue to the end of the decade.

Members were advised that work around the Better Care Fund (BCF) was conducted in a way to support all parties who were dealing with discharge and significant investment in reablement services from the BCF is taking place and will need to be expanded to reduce the number of people going into hospital.

Members asked whether difficult conversations were being had with partners, such as the NHS. Officers informed members that NHS colleagues were clear of the consequences of Cheshire East Council’s financial situation and that if it were to deteriorate, it would have a detrimental effect on the local NHS provision. However, the NHS were themselves facing deficit of £160m and were seeking how to minimise expenditure. Cheshire East Council has made clear to the Ministry of Housing, Local Government  ...  view the full minutes text for item 17